Pakistan vs Sri Lanka in the perfect finale to entertaining tri-series

Big picture - a juicy-looking contest to decide the series

If there is something slightly disconcerting about this tri-series, which concludes when Sri Lanka play hosts Pakistan in the final on Saturday, it's that everything seems to have gone as it should. The pitches, across Rawalpindi and Lahore, have varied enough to offer contests of more than just one flavour. The sides have been relatively well-balanced, and relatively full-strength. The weather has played ball. The crowds built up most games, and packed the stadium out by the evenings.

For once, there was little by way of off-field drama to talk about, which is always a win for Pakistan. And it all culminates with quite a juicy-looking contest between two sides whose strengths are different enough to offer real tactical intrigue, but strengths they both unmistakably have.

Pakistan will view the final as a tabula rasa, putting Tuesday's crushing defeat in the league game against Sri Lanka firmly behind them. They can afford to do so because by winning the first three games of the tri-series, they had already secured safe passage to the final. Those wins came in different forms, from the clinical to the utterly dramatic. But there was enough to demonstrate it was those three victories rather than the disappointment of the last game that served up the more faithful reflection of their true abilities.

They have one very clear strength, and one obvious weakness. Their bowling attack has been comfortably the best of the teams over the past two weeks, with plenty of variety in the pace trio of Shaheen Shah Afridi, Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf. Complemented by Arafat Minhas and Shadab Khan's spin bowling, it saw them defend two arguably below-par scores in their first two matches, and keep England to a modest 241 in their third.

But the strength in bowling is offset by a glaring vulnerability in the top order of their batting, with each of the top three out of form, and the lower-middle order tasked with making up the difference. When that doesn't happen, as was the case earlier against England last week and against Sri Lanka three days back, the wheels can fall off alarmingly quickly.

That win was dominant enough for Sri Lanka to go into the final with a slight psychological edge. That game aside, Sri Lanka's dynamic big-hitting with the bat has lit the tournament up for them, and memorialised immortally with that monstrous run chase of 430 against England. They have breached 330 twice this tournament, and boast the top-scorer in Pavan Rathnayake. The bowling might not have had quite the same impact, but as Dilshan Madushanka showed against Pakistan, it is capable of landing some devastating blows on its day.

Sri Lanka are aware no one fancies defending a total against them at the moment, and even if England managed it on Thursday, Sri Lanka scored 331, higher than any Pakistan total this series. Pakistan's bowlers, however, did keep them out in the tournament opener, quickly neutering the top order before shooting out the last five batters at the death. It is that match-up, of Pakistan's bowling against Sri Lanka's batting, which looks set to determine the destination of the tri-series trophy. Handling the pressure of a final will just be part of the allure.

And as far as handling the pressure of a final at the Gaddafi Stadium goes, Sri Lanka will be fairly confident they are up to the challenge.

Form guide

Pakistan: LWWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first) Sri Lanka: LWWLL

In the spotlight: Babar Azam and Pavan Rathnayake

It is, perhaps, the obvious call, but there's little point pretending the focus won't be on Babar Azam ahead of another big final. For the profile he enjoys in Pakistan and the talent he possesses, the most damning charge levelled at Babar is his perceived inability to rise to the challenge of a big occasion. Babar's oeuvre of odds-defying knocks under pressure is conspicuously barren compared to his talent.

Even in his current, reduced state of effectiveness, Babar managed good starts in three of his four innings in this tri-series, breaching double-figures but getting out before making a contribution of substance. Saturday represents one more chance to change all that with another World Cup looming.

This series has been the making of a new Sri Lanka star. A fortnight ago, Pavan Rathnayake was a young, wet-behind-the-ears prospect for his side, boasting a handful of internationals and a heap of potential as yet unrealised. For the final, he is Sri Lanka's talisman after lighting up the tournament. Rathnayake scored two big hundreds against England, demonstrating his dazzling ability as well as the nerve to hold his own under pressure.

It all began with 79 against Pakistan in the opening game that turned the middle overs around for Sri Lanka, and with better support, should have seen them through to victory. He has scored 350 runs, averaged 116.67, and struck at 123.67. It has been a perfect tri-series for the 24-year old, and on Saturday, it could get the perfect finish.

Team news

Pakistan will have to take a call on Fakhar Zaman, balancing his reputation for big-match performances with his current dismal form. Sahibzada Farhan joined the Pakistan squad, arriving from Nepal on the morning of the game against Sri Lanka on Tuesday, but was not deemed ready enough to start. That is the most consequential decision the hosts are likely to have to make as they look to primarily stick with the formula that won them the first three matches.

Pakistan: 1 Maaz Sadaqat, 2 Fakhar Zaman/Sahibzada Farhan, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Saad Baig (wk), 5 Salman Agha, 6 Hasan Nawaz, 7 Arafat Minhas, 8 Shadab Khan, 9 Shaheen Shah Afridi (capt), 10 Naseem Shah, 11 Haris Rauf

Sri Lanka have fielded the same side for the last two games. Despite defeat in a dead rubber, there should be little incentive to change the side that dismantled Pakistan at the same venue on Tuesday.

Sri Lanka: 1 Kamindu Mendis, 2 Avishka Fernando, 3 Kusal Mendis (capt, wk), 4 Pavan Rathnayake, 5 Sahan Arachchige, 6 Janith Liyanage, 7 Dasun Shanaka, 8 Dunith Wellalage, 9 Eshan Malinga, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Dilshan Madushanka

Pitch and conditions

Lahore has seen flat tracks throughout the tri-series, with Pakistan's capitulation on Tuesday more down to their own batting woes than anything in the surface. The game between England and Sri Lanka on Thursday perhaps showed the true ceiling as regards run-scoring, placing particular pressure on the side setting a target to run up the numbers. The weather has been warm and sunny all week, and should remain so on Saturday.

Stats and trivia

Sri Lanka have a remarkably good ODI record against Pakistan in Lahore, winning six of the eight matches they have played. The last two have been especially one-sided: on Thursday, Sri Lanka won by eight wickets with 31.5 overs to spare, while in the game before that, in 2009, they skittled Pakistan out for 75 and won by 234 runs. Pakistan last won an ODI tri-series title in 2008, beating India in the final of the Kitply Cup in Bangladesh. Their most recent ODI tri-series tournament was at home against New Zealand and South Africa in early 2025, with the hosts losing to New Zealand in the final.